Ross Douthat, to me, comes the closest to filling the huge hole in Catholic commentary created by the death of the Rev. Richard John Neuhaus in 2009. The New York Times, of course, is not First Things. Douthat is not a Neuhausian polemicist. But there is no other writer today who is as keen an observer of the religious landscape or whose judgments of it are as sound.
So it is that Douthat’s prediction of what American religion might look like on Easter 2050 caught my eye. As a Catholic who runs the ecumenical Family Institute of Connecticut, an organization loosely affiliated with the Evangelical Focus on the Family, I have followed these trends in the state where Douthat and I both live.
Douthat posits six categories in the American religious landscape of 2050: The neotraditionalists, the mere Christians, the liberal Christians, the all-American pagans, the fast-growing outsiders, and the intelligentsia. As one friend in Catholic media said on my Facebook: “So, [Douthat’s] big prediction is: ‘just like today, only more so.’”
He’s right. Douthat’s “much weirder American future” is not so much a transformation as it is a deepening of trends that have already begun. “Neo-trad subcultures” supplying future conservative “behind-the-scenes leadership” in civil government, for instance, is how we already got the Catholic Charismatic Amy Coney Barrett on the U.S. Supreme Court, or the intensely evangelical U.S. Rep. Mike Johnson as Speaker of the House.
Douthat’s “mere Christians” are likewise already upon us. Douthat guesses at names like “Elevate.” Here in Connecticut they call themselves “Vox.”
But I wonder if my friend and Douthat are not somehow both right. Here at the quarter point of the twenty-first century the old denominationalism is diminished but still alive, even as these new trends have begun. If the present trends pick up steam while the old religious arrangements disappear altogether, won’t that that indeed give us a “much weirder American future?”
And some of Douthat’s predictions may come true in ways different than those he predicts. He thinks today’s liberal Christians will survive to the century’s midpoint. I don’t think so. Those disillusioned by conservative Christianity will either drift into the “mere Christians” category or paganize. Either of those options will appear more attractive in “a much weirder American future” than being bored to death.
Instead, I think the “mere Christians” might themselves become the new liberal Christians. We see this in, for instance, the trajectory of Douthat’s New York Times colleague David French, who went from being an Evangelical NeverTrumper to now supporting the Respect for Marriage Act, an attempt to further solidify same-sex marriage in federal law. In fact, large chunks of Evangelicalism already seem to have become the new liberal mainline.
This will be a more Jesus-y liberal Christianity than present day Mainline Protestantism, which loves liberal scripture scholars and deconstructing traditional Christian doctrines. French’s successors in 2050 will speak and sound Evangelical but will be increasingly supportive of abortion, LGBT agendas and so forth.
One final point on how Douthat’s predictions may come true in unexpected ways. He asks whether the intelligentsia will join with paganism and transhumanism or instead join with Christians against “some threatening techno-future.” At present we have the curious case of Elon Musk, who is somehow doing both. Conservatives love Musk for opposing censorship and transgenderism. And he is sounding the alarm on AI. But like his fellow billionaires, Musk has been on board with transhumanism all along. My guess is the commitment to a transhumanist future will outweigh other possibilities for our ruling class. The intelligentsia of the future may pose even greater threats to humanity than the present one.