DAY 6
CHALLENGE
“By definition, miracles are improbable. In any given instance it’s very unlikely that a miracle will occur. The greater probability is the non-miraculous. We should accept the greatest probability, so we should not believe in miracles.”
DEFENSE
This assumes we should refuse to believe a miracle has happened without looking at the evidence.
Supernatural interventions are not improbable by definition. They could be happening all around us, but with such regularity that we don’t identify them as miracles.
Interventions we would recognize as miracles (water turning to wine, loaves multiplying, the dead rising) are rare, but this is no reason to conclude that they never happen or we should never believe in them.
For example, identical twins also are rare. For every thousand births, only about three will involve identical twins. But the fact that identical twins are rare does not mean they are not born or that we should disbelieve in them.
It is true that, if we have no further knowledge, the likelihood is that a pregnancy will not involve identical twins. If we had to place a bet in advance, the safe bet would be against twins. But after the birth has happened, the thing to do is to look at the evidence and see whether identical twins were born.
Miracles may be less common than twins, but the same principles apply. If we are asked whether a miracle will occur at a particular place and time, and we know nothing else, then the odds are low. If we had to place a bet, the smart bet would be that one will not. But if we know more than that, we have to incorporate that information into our assessment. If a miracle is reported to have happened, we should ask what evidence there is that it did. Uncommon events do happen, and we need to look at the evidence.
TIP
As an exercise, see how many improbable events you can name that actually happened. This will let you expand on this defense in the future.